NATO Romania

THE CURRENT STATE OF THE SITUATION. ORIGINS OF THE GEOPOLITICAL PROBLEM

We are witnessing an ongoing large-scale social, political, cultural identity-prone phenomenon: Romania’s Euro-Atlantic integration in the context of Russia’s reemergence as an important player in the Pontus-Baltic area, soon after two other major developments of the post-communist era – the expansion of the Euro-Atlantic influence (the US and NATO) and European integration (the EU).
As frontier country of both NATO and the EU on the Southern flank of the Pontus-Baltic area, Romania is expected to answer in an adequate and qualified manner to the new problems of the East. The Romanian regional interest comprises tensions and force vectors of far greater strategic stakes. The whole area of the “new Europe” has come about to a rather powerful resurrection due to the expansion of the Euro-Atlantic border at the outskirts of the so-called global system.
Years ago, after Georgia and Ukraine’s “defection”, Russia found itself forced to drastically restrict its area of influence. Russia’s seeming “confinement” had come in the form of new boundaries around Russia across the Caucasus, on one hand, as well as on the Baltic line. Besides, once Ukraine had succeeded to break from Moscow’s influence, there seemed to have taken place a narrowing of the control exerted over the Black Sea and the Pontus-Baltic area, as well a cession of a significant part of Russia’s influence towards the West and the South.
“Nowadays, Moldova, despite its smallness and incumbent capabilities, has become a key player for Russia in the CIS”, wrote Nezavisimaia Gazeta in August 2000. Starting from this, in 2000, an IntelMedia feature published under the “Basarabia at a crossroads” title offered the Romanian public opinion, political factors and mass-media a documentary analysis on Moldova, “the key player of CIS”.
A number of data regarding the evolution of the political and economic situation of the important – according to the Russian point of view – Romanian territory, were gathered while singling out the “(unfortunate, yet more acute than ever) radical return of Chisinau to RSS Moldova”. The study in question noted that “communism had donned an ethnic coat and, though shrewd maneuvers or rough force, accordingly, was preparing for an inconspicuous comeback in the tiny Romanian country”. This menacing perspective was confirmed by the electoral slogan of one of the communist groups: "S Rossiei na veciniie vremena!" (Forever with Russia!).
Referring to this study represents a guideline since most of the (geo)political projections comprised by the material have come true in the past eight years. The authors stated that “the general elections held in spring of 2001 had represented the most important event of the past decade of existence for the 'independent state of the Republic of Moldova'”. For the Romanians on either side of the Prut river, the results of these elections, in which for the first time the winners had taken it all with just one move - Parliament, Presidency and Government as well –, would become more important than they had first met the eye. The whole configuration of the area would be reshaped according to the vote's results. It was hard to believe that Romania would not be affected. However, the mass-media, the public opinion and the Romanian political class are still not showing any sign that they understand that the Russian border wave promoted by Voronin’s communists and Moscow’s pawns at the top of the political hierarchy in Chisinau will soon bring the cold in the houses of the Romanians in Romania as well”. The study ended with a review of “Russia’s offensive” under the new imperial seal of “the Putin doctrine”.
If one takes a look at the current situation, one can see that the above stated prerequisites was confirmed. Moldova has become Russia’s last card, finding itself in front of a serious geopolitical dilemma. As soon as Ukraine is out of Russia’s hands, the military outpost in Transdniestr won’t be able to hold on any longer, given that it is practically 1.000 kilometers away from Russia. Moscow will either succeed in projecting its force at a rather considerable distance, while continuing to exert its military, political and economic control at the Black Sea, or it will fail, loosing a final stronghold, as well as wasting away important logistic means.
The 2007 local elections in Moldova and the terrible loss of percents suffered by the communists marks the beginning of the drift for the present governance. Year 2009 is supposed to mean a massive drop for the Communist Party. The electoral campaign project of PCM for 2009 is extremely easy to anticipate, by this meaning that it will be identical with that of 2001, summed up by the "S Rossiei na veciniie vremena!" (Forever with Russia!) slogan. Of course, Romania will be the favorite subject of the communist propaganda. A Romanian nation still held captive by forces controlled by Russia is offered the chance of a new dynamics, while the drive of the movement could bring Moldova a little bit closer to Europe. As for the extent to which Romania is prepared to take over or sustain this dynamics, this is a question that has not received an answer yet.